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Sorry, BBC: It’s Clear Why This Winter’s Avalanche Cycle is so Awful

Henry
1 day ago
7 min read

“Avalanche deaths have been this high before, so, while there is a consensus that climate change is playing a part, it’s not yet clear to what extent.” – BBC News, 14^th March 2026

I always have mixed emotions when the BBC publishes a news article on avalanches. On the one hand, exposure in the public realm to news and information about avalanches is always useful, helping drive home messages about avalanche safety and decision making that needs to be talked about more.

On the other hand, the BBC – and other news outlets – only touch on the subject after moments of extraordinary tragedy. Earlier this year following the death of at least six people across the Alps after a weekend of extraordinary snowfall, the BBC and other outlets were hot on the trigger to cover the series of disasters.

It was ever thus that I found myself scrolling through BBC news, blurry eyed on a Saturday morning before I’d got out of bed and made my mandatory morning coffee. An article published by BBC news on Saturday 14 ^th March covered the grim milestone of avalanche deaths hitting a century across the 2025/26 season in the Alps; indeed, they have soared to 125 already by mid-March, well above the 70 in 2024/25 and 87 the winter before that (source: European Avalanche Warning Service (EAWS), and, since time of writing, that number has continued to rise).

The piece - by journalist James Waterhouse - was well written and well researched, and avoided falling into the traps of simplicity and disingenuity that so often plagues news outlets trying to talk about specialist subjects.

Two quotes, however, caught my attention, and I wanted to unpack them some more here; by doing so, I hope to build on Waterhouse’s argument (rather than diminish his excellent work) and drive home just how and why global warming is making deadly avalanches more common, why this season’s milestone is indeed a grim milestone, and just what you and I can do about it to bring this number down.

“Fluctuating temperatures are influencing how much snow falls, when it does, and where”

For many of us looking at this winter, it has appeared to be a really good season. The last few years have been all over the place, with not enough snow falling in November and December before long periods of fine and dry weather through the heart of winter has given way to snowy springs.

Therefore, with good snowfall to start the year that has then seemed to continue through January and February – especially in popular destinations such as France and Italy – it is very easy to look at this year and just chalk it off as a “good” snow year.

But reading between the lines there is much more here than meets the eye. In my 9-to-5 with the Ski Club, one of my roles is to write overviews of the snow forecast; short summaries of upcoming snowfall for the week ahead (and before you say this can be done by AI, I’ve tried; AI can’t read a weather forecast to save its life). In the past I’ve done this biweekly, but this week thanks to stresses of other roles this has slipped to weekly.

Writing these overviews gives me a unique insight into the formation of the snowpack. Regular snowfall and fluctuating temperatures allows a strong and stable snowpack to form, whereas long periods of warm and dry weather raises the risk of facet layers either on the surface or deep in the snowpack. In many cases, I am able to look at future snowfall, take into account the snowpack as it is, and – pretty accurately if I may say so – predict the broad brushstrokes of the upcoming avalanche forecast. Sure, I won’t be able to guess the exact elevation and aspect where the danger level changes from Level 2 (Moderate) to Level 3 (Considerable), but it gives me a “familiarity” with the snowpack where I can act almost as a local in terms of underlying knowledge wherever and whenever I then head to the Alps.

“That’s great,” I hear you cry, “but what’s the point?” The point, dear reader, is that this year’s snowpack has been one of the worst ever. Snowfall in December was immediately followed by long periods of warm weather under which large facet layers were allowed to form - I was there, skiing in Tignes in December when these facets were being formed. When snowfall did arrive, it arrived in huge, huge dumps, some of which were the largest I have seen. These large snowfalls are sitting on – and are still sitting on – this December facet layer, creating a persistent weak layer in the snowpack for the first time in the Alps for as long as I can remember.

Of the 100 deaths amongst skiers, climbers and snowmobiliers in the Alps this winter, 61 of those involved persistent weak layers as either primary or secondary problem; much of this would have been this December facet layer failing under the new snow. 81% of fatal avalanche incidents (74) involving skiers, snowboarders, climbers or snowmobilers in the Alps this year list a persistent weak layer as their primary or secondary problem (EAWS).

This weather pattern is a direct result of climate change. Less predictable snowfall, longer drought periods, and ever larger episodic dumps of snow have all been hallmarks of the impact of climate change over the past two decades, alongside others we’re all familiar with such as rising sea levels and retreating glaciers. This pattern has been the theme of the last few winters, taken to whole new level in 2025/26.

It is exactly this that is leading to these massive feast-or-famine cycles, creating conditions for excessive avalanche problems to form, then dumping the vast amounts of snow required to turn everything up to 11. This has been a truly extraordinary persistent weak layer, truly extraordinary dumps of snow, and truly extraordinary avalanche forecasts. It's not just that fluctuating temperatures are affecting how much, when, and where it snow falls, it that it is doing so in such a dramatic and drastic fashion.

“Avalanche deaths have been this high before …”

That quote is undeniably true; avalanche deaths in Europe have been above 100 four times in the last decade, with 2017/18 setting the unfortunate bar of 147 deaths. Even the COVID-shortened season of 2020/21 – which ground to a halt about this time and lost most of the last two months of the season – saw a spike to 131 deaths.

But this season comes amidst a worldwide decline in avalanche deaths; in Europe, the USA and Canada, the long term trend has been a gradual decline in avalanche deaths over the last ten or twenty years. The decline has been small, admittedly, scuppered by these “fat tailed” event years that see large spikes in the data; Canada’s average annual avalanche deaths have declined from 15 to 10 in two decades, Europe from 105 to 90, and the USA from 25 to 23, both in the last decade (sources: EAWS, Avalanche Canada, The Avalanche Center).

Simultaneously, participation in off-piste and backcountry activities is increasing;* COVID drove this home when there was a huge uptake in ski touring with ski lifts shuttered in many areas. And whilst this ski touring trend has calmed down in more recent years, participation in off-piste and backcountry skiing is still increasing. It is, rightfully, a source of great pride amongst organisations such as the American Avalanche Association that avalanche fatalities continue to decline even as participation increases, a sign that their hard work in education and awareness is paying off.

*Statstics, particularly year-to-year comparisons, on this are incredibly hard to come by, however a series of Swiss studies indicate that travellers in "backcountry" areas in any given year as increasing from 1.3% of the Swiss population in 2000 to 3.4% in 2020; an increase in absolute numbers of c.200,000 people or 215%

So this milestone, coming as it does amidst a decline in fatalities both as an absolute number year-on-year and as a percentage of skier participation is, in itself cause for concern.

Waterhouse does, correctly, draw attention to the reasons behind this spike; too many people are chasing freshies without the right equipment and ignoring the advice of – literally – millennia. Letting the snow settle is something indigenous Americans have been cogniscent of since time immemoriam, waiting until snow falls from the trees before heading out into dangerous terrain – modern science has demonstrated that snow falling from the trees, normally 24hrs after snowfall, is a result of the flakes sintering (changing shape), the same process happening to snow in the snowpack allowing it to bind and secure itself to the snow beneath it.

Not carrying the right gear is absolutely unforgivable. Not only does it endanger you, massively reducing the chances of you being found in an avalanche, but it impacts your ability to find your friends if they are caught. Carrying a shovel, transceiver and probe is an absolute, final necessity for skiing off piste.

Waiting for the snow to settle can be tricky, fighting peer pressure from friends and time pressures of only being in the mountains for a week at a time, or maybe just a week each season. But as seasons get drier and drier, and snow dumps get bigger and bigger, this becomes more and more of a necessity. The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

You don’t have to read the snow forecast every week or compile your own overviews, either. Pay attention to snowfall and the forecast in the week building up to your holiday, and read the avalanche forecast carefully (I know French forecasts are only in French, but they use stock phrases, images and universally accepted terms; only a tiny bit of familiarity with them immediately makes them understandable). If there’s large snowfall coming, and the avalanche forecast begins to tick up, start booking a spa day …

And of course, go with a guide. Guides will know the area they work in and will be able to find the really good stuff (almost) no matter the conditions. They can be booked online in advance, or in large resorts simply wander into the local guides office and find a new ski friend!

Final Thoughts

As public service announcements go to the British skiing public, let me take nothing away from Waterhouse’s article on BBC news; it delivered key points well.

2025/26 has been a shock to many working in the industry, with some tragic incidents both here in the Europe and across the Atlantic. Things in the Alps are clearly changing, and for the worse, too, so being on top of things is, now more than ever, critical to staying alive and making sure everyone gets home safe.